Opinion: Operatives Recycle Hagan Claim

John Hood

John Hood

by John Hood

I suppose if you thought Kay Hagan’s reelection campaign was a brilliant exercise in political rhetoric, you might try to reuse her talking points to win the political debates of 2015 or the political races of 2016.

But Hagan lost. One reason, surely, is that her campaign made extravagantly ridiculous claims about then-House Speaker Thom Tillis and the work of the General Assembly under his leadership — claims that even liberal newspapers and fact checkers didn’t buy.

Poll shows Burr, McCrory with early 2016 leads

PPPRALEIGH, N.C. – A new poll from Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm based in Raleigh, shows Republican Governor Pat McCrory and U.S. Senator Richard Burr with early leads over potential opponents in the 2016 election.

According to the poll 41% of voters approve of the job McCrory is doing compared to 45% who disapprove — numbers almost identical to his 41%-46% approval spread in early January. PPP opines that “this makes 19 polls in a row where McCrory’s approval numbers have been under water.” Nevertheless McCrory, leads both of his known potential Democratic opponent. He holds a 44%-39% advantage over Attorney General Roy Cooper and a 44%-34% lead over Ken Spaulding.

Hagan Helps Pass National Defense Authorization Act

WASHINGTON, D.C.- U.S. Senator Kay Hagan, a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, supported the bipartisan Fiscal Year 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that authorizes funding for the nation’s military and Department of Defense (DoD). The FY 2015 NDAA, which passed the Senate on Friday, includes Hagan’s provision that would halt the inactivation of the 440th Airlift Wing at Fort Bragg by suspending all C-130H and C-130J aircraft transfers until 60 days after the Air Force issues a report outlining a full justification of their decision. Hagan’s provision also subjects the Air Force report to an independent review by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) followed by time for Congressional review. The NDAA now heads to the President’s desk to be signed into law.

PPP: McCrory, Burr hold early leads for re-election

PPPRALEIGH, N.C. — A new poll released Wednesday by Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling (PPP) shows Governor Pat McCrory and U.S. Senator Richard Burr, both incumbent Republicans, with early leads in potential 2016 re-election contests.

Poll: Obama Job Approval at 43, McCrory at 47, Hagan at 36

High PointHIGH POINT, N.C. — A new High Point University Poll finds less than one-half of North Carolina residents approve of the job performances of President Barack Obama (43 percent) and Gov. Pat McCrory (47 percent).

Fully 49 percent and 37 percent disapprove of Obama and McCrory’s job performance, respectively.

Meanwhile, U.S. Senators Kay Hagan and Richard Burr have job approval ratings of 36 and 29 percent, respectively. Forty-eight percent disapprove of Hagan’s performance while 28 percent disapprove of Burr’s performance. Fully 43 percent expressed no opinion one way or another on Senator Burr’s job performance.

Opinion: Best Pollster in NC Was…

John Hood

John Hood

By John Hood

Polling, it is said, is more of an art than a science. Pollsters are among the first to say this — particularly when the products, causes, or candidates they project to succeed fall flat. When their predictions turn out to be on the mark, however, pollsters hope you picture them with pocket protectors instead of palettes.

Questions of methodology and transparency aside, political polling is fundamentally about generating useful, reliable predictions about how the general population thinks or will vote. During the 2014 election cycle, many pollsters didn’t. According to polling analyst Nate Silver, publicly released polls on gubernatorial and Senate races were, on average, about four percentage points too generous to Democrats nationwide.

Tillis Stuns Hagan, Joins New GOP Senate Majority

RickHendersonby Rick Henderson

RALEIGH — In one of the most closely watched U.S. Senate contests nationally, Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis of Mecklenburg County knocked off incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan in a race capping a night that saw the GOP seize the majority in the upper chamber, unifying control of Congress.

Unofficial results show Tillis winning 48.84 percent, Hagan 47.23 percent, and Libertarian Sean Haugh 3.74 percent of the 2.9 million ballots cast.

More than $109 million was spent by candidates, parties, and independent groups on the race, making it the costliest of this election cycle, pending a Dec. 6 runoff for the Louisiana Senate seat held by incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu.

Tillis defeats Hagan

RALEIGH, N.C. – N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis defeated incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Kay Hagan in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.

Thom Tillis REP 1,413,228 48.88 %
Kay Hagan DEM 1,364,727 47.20 %
Sean Haugh LIB 108,177 3.74 %
Write-In (Miscellaneous) 5,231 0.18 %

Tillis posted the following message on his campaign Facebook page late Tuesday evening: “This is not my victory – this is your victory. You’ve all been an extension of my family and worked so hard. Thank you, North Carolina.”

Civitas Poll Shows Senate Race Tied, Hagan Leads Among Early Voters; PPP shows Hagan leading

RALEIGH, N.C. – The most recent Civitas Poll shows support among early voters for Sen. Kay Hagan, suggesting she goes into Election Day with a lead over challenger Thom Tillis in the race for the U.S. Senate.

“This election heads into election day where it has been most of the race — with Hagan very slightly ahead, but Tillis within striking distance,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. “It comes down to whether the Tillis campaign can get their voters to the polls on Election Day in sufficient numbers to overcome Hagan’s early turnout advantage.”

Civitas Poll: NC Voters Taking Dimmer View of Hagan, Holding Steady on Tillis

CivitasRALEIGH – The most recent Civitas Poll sheds light on voters’ sentiments leading up to the Nov. 4 elections.

Voters’ views of Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan virtually flipped in the last month. In our September poll, 48 percent viewed her favorably and 42 percent unfavorably. In October, however, her favorability rating had flipped to 40 percent approving, with her unfavorability rating at 49 percent.

As Civitas recently reported on the October poll, in the U.S. Senate race 40 percent picked Republican challenger Thom Tillis, 39 percent Hagan and 5 percent Libertarian Sean Haugh. Fourteen percent were undecided. Asked about their choices without Haugh, Tillis again led Hagan by 1 point, 42 to 41, with 15 percent undecided.