Poll: Obama Job Approval at 43, McCrory at 47, Hagan at 36

High PointHIGH POINT, N.C. — A new High Point University Poll finds less than one-half of North Carolina residents approve of the job performances of President Barack Obama (43 percent) and Gov. Pat McCrory (47 percent).

Fully 49 percent and 37 percent disapprove of Obama and McCrory’s job performance, respectively.

Meanwhile, U.S. Senators Kay Hagan and Richard Burr have job approval ratings of 36 and 29 percent, respectively. Forty-eight percent disapprove of Hagan’s performance while 28 percent disapprove of Burr’s performance. Fully 43 percent expressed no opinion one way or another on Senator Burr’s job performance.

Opinion: Best Pollster in NC Was…

John Hood

John Hood

By John Hood

Polling, it is said, is more of an art than a science. Pollsters are among the first to say this — particularly when the products, causes, or candidates they project to succeed fall flat. When their predictions turn out to be on the mark, however, pollsters hope you picture them with pocket protectors instead of palettes.

Questions of methodology and transparency aside, political polling is fundamentally about generating useful, reliable predictions about how the general population thinks or will vote. During the 2014 election cycle, many pollsters didn’t. According to polling analyst Nate Silver, publicly released polls on gubernatorial and Senate races were, on average, about four percentage points too generous to Democrats nationwide.

Tillis Stuns Hagan, Joins New GOP Senate Majority

RickHendersonby Rick Henderson

RALEIGH — In one of the most closely watched U.S. Senate contests nationally, Republican House Speaker Thom Tillis of Mecklenburg County knocked off incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan in a race capping a night that saw the GOP seize the majority in the upper chamber, unifying control of Congress.

Unofficial results show Tillis winning 48.84 percent, Hagan 47.23 percent, and Libertarian Sean Haugh 3.74 percent of the 2.9 million ballots cast.

More than $109 million was spent by candidates, parties, and independent groups on the race, making it the costliest of this election cycle, pending a Dec. 6 runoff for the Louisiana Senate seat held by incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu.

Tillis defeats Hagan

RALEIGH, N.C. – N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis defeated incumbent Democrat U.S. Senator Kay Hagan in North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race.

NAME ON BALLOT PARTY BALLOT COUNT PERCENT
Thom Tillis REP 1,413,228 48.88 %
Kay Hagan DEM 1,364,727 47.20 %
Sean Haugh LIB 108,177 3.74 %
Write-In (Miscellaneous) 5,231 0.18 %

Tillis posted the following message on his campaign Facebook page late Tuesday evening: “This is not my victory – this is your victory. You’ve all been an extension of my family and worked so hard. Thank you, North Carolina.”

Civitas Poll Shows Senate Race Tied, Hagan Leads Among Early Voters; PPP shows Hagan leading

RALEIGH, N.C. – The most recent Civitas Poll shows support among early voters for Sen. Kay Hagan, suggesting she goes into Election Day with a lead over challenger Thom Tillis in the race for the U.S. Senate.

“This election heads into election day where it has been most of the race — with Hagan very slightly ahead, but Tillis within striking distance,” Civitas President Francis X. De Luca said. “It comes down to whether the Tillis campaign can get their voters to the polls on Election Day in sufficient numbers to overcome Hagan’s early turnout advantage.”

Civitas Poll: NC Voters Taking Dimmer View of Hagan, Holding Steady on Tillis

CivitasRALEIGH – The most recent Civitas Poll sheds light on voters’ sentiments leading up to the Nov. 4 elections.

Voters’ views of Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan virtually flipped in the last month. In our September poll, 48 percent viewed her favorably and 42 percent unfavorably. In October, however, her favorability rating had flipped to 40 percent approving, with her unfavorability rating at 49 percent.

As Civitas recently reported on the October poll, in the U.S. Senate race 40 percent picked Republican challenger Thom Tillis, 39 percent Hagan and 5 percent Libertarian Sean Haugh. Fourteen percent were undecided. Asked about their choices without Haugh, Tillis again led Hagan by 1 point, 42 to 41, with 15 percent undecided.

Tillis vs. Hagan: A Tale of Three Polls

As Election Day approaches, three polls released Thursday each paint a different picture of where North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race stands:

Elon Poll says Hagan Leads:  An Elon University poll says that Hagan “has solidified a 45-41 margin” against Tillis since their poll found the same numbers in early September. Another 6 percent of likely voters plan to support another candidate, while 7 percent remain undecided.  Hagan’s strongest support is among women and those likely voters under 30, and she maintains an edge among true independents.  The live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 687 likely voters was conducted Oct. 21-25, 2014, and has a margin of error of 3.74 percentage points.

NC Values Coalition, National Organization for Marriage Victory Fund team up to launch ad

RALEIGH, N.C. — The N.C. Values Coalition has partnered with the National Organization for Marriage Victory Fund to launch a television ad entitled “Kay Hagan’s Judge”:

Hagan Contractor Applications Raise Questions

DonCarringtonby Don Carrington

RALEIGH — U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan’s husband Charles “Chip” Hagan, a Greensboro attorney, certified to the North Carolina licensing board for electrical contractors that their son Tilden Hagan worked 3,500 hours installing electrical wiring and equipment over a period of 324 days in 2012 — requiring Tilden to work consecutive 76-hour weeks over that period.

Carolina Journal calculated the hours by comparing claims the Hagans made on applications Tilden Hagan filed for North Carolina contracting licenses in the “limited” and “unlimited” categories. On both applications, only one person attested to Tilden’s experience as an electrical installer: Chip Hagan, Tilden’s father. On the application for an unlimited license, a second person attested to Tilden’s experience: William Stewart, Tilden’s brother-in-law.

Poll: Tillis, Hagan Tied

High PointHIGH POINT, N.C. — The HPU Poll finds that in North Carolina’s pivotal senate race, Sen. Kay Hagan and Speaker of the House Thom Tillis are tied at 44 percent each when North Carolina likely voters were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today or for whom they had voted if they had already voted in the 2014 Senate election.

The poll’s findings are the latest in a series of recent surveys of likely and actual voters in North Carolina that have said the Senate race in North Carolina is extremely close. Its outcome will likely depend on the extent to which campaigns can turn out their supporters.