Civitas Poll: NC Voters Taking Dimmer View of Hagan, Holding Steady on Tillis

CivitasRALEIGH – The most recent Civitas Poll sheds light on voters’ sentiments leading up to the Nov. 4 elections.

Voters’ views of Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan virtually flipped in the last month. In our September poll, 48 percent viewed her favorably and 42 percent unfavorably. In October, however, her favorability rating had flipped to 40 percent approving, with her unfavorability rating at 49 percent.

As Civitas recently reported on the October poll, in the U.S. Senate race 40 percent picked Republican challenger Thom Tillis, 39 percent Hagan and 5 percent Libertarian Sean Haugh. Fourteen percent were undecided. Asked about their choices without Haugh, Tillis again led Hagan by 1 point, 42 to 41, with 15 percent undecided.

Tillis vs. Hagan: A Tale of Three Polls

As Election Day approaches, three polls released Thursday each paint a different picture of where North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race stands:

Elon Poll says Hagan Leads:  An Elon University poll says that Hagan “has solidified a 45-41 margin” against Tillis since their poll found the same numbers in early September. Another 6 percent of likely voters plan to support another candidate, while 7 percent remain undecided.  Hagan’s strongest support is among women and those likely voters under 30, and she maintains an edge among true independents.  The live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 687 likely voters was conducted Oct. 21-25, 2014, and has a margin of error of 3.74 percentage points.

NC Values Coalition, National Organization for Marriage Victory Fund team up to launch ad

RALEIGH, N.C. — The N.C. Values Coalition has partnered with the National Organization for Marriage Victory Fund to launch a television ad entitled “Kay Hagan’s Judge”:

Hagan Contractor Applications Raise Questions

DonCarringtonby Don Carrington

RALEIGH — U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan’s husband Charles “Chip” Hagan, a Greensboro attorney, certified to the North Carolina licensing board for electrical contractors that their son Tilden Hagan worked 3,500 hours installing electrical wiring and equipment over a period of 324 days in 2012 — requiring Tilden to work consecutive 76-hour weeks over that period.

Carolina Journal calculated the hours by comparing claims the Hagans made on applications Tilden Hagan filed for North Carolina contracting licenses in the “limited” and “unlimited” categories. On both applications, only one person attested to Tilden’s experience as an electrical installer: Chip Hagan, Tilden’s father. On the application for an unlimited license, a second person attested to Tilden’s experience: William Stewart, Tilden’s brother-in-law.

Poll: Tillis, Hagan Tied

High PointHIGH POINT, N.C. — The HPU Poll finds that in North Carolina’s pivotal senate race, Sen. Kay Hagan and Speaker of the House Thom Tillis are tied at 44 percent each when North Carolina likely voters were asked who they would vote for if the election were held today or for whom they had voted if they had already voted in the 2014 Senate election.

The poll’s findings are the latest in a series of recent surveys of likely and actual voters in North Carolina that have said the Senate race in North Carolina is extremely close. Its outcome will likely depend on the extent to which campaigns can turn out their supporters.

Poll: Hagan, Tillis tied heading into home stretch

A recent Marist poll shows that in the contest for U.S. Senate in North Carolina, Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan, 43%, and her Republican challenger, N.C. House Speaker Thom Tillis, 43%, are in a dead heat among North Carolina likely voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or have voted early.  Six percent are undecided, and 6% of likely voters with a candidate preference say they might vote differently.
Hagan and Tillis maintain their support among their respective party’s base.  However, Tillis leads Hagan among independents likely to vote.  A gender gap also exists.  Hagan has a 10 point advantage among women likely to go to the polls while Tillis is up 11 among men.
“Up until this point, incumbent Hagan has been considered the strongest Democrat among the so-called Democratic firewall states in this election cycle,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.  “Now, this is a contest that could go either way, and the outcome may determine control of the Senate.”

Civitas Poll Shows Slim Lead For Tillis

CivitasRALEIGH, N.C. – The newest Civitas Poll showed state House Speaker Thom Tillis, a Republican, with a slight edge over Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in voters’ views of the U.S. Senate candidates.

When we asked 600 North Carolina registered voters who they’d vote for if the election were today, 40 percent picked Tillis, 39 percent Hagan and 5 percent Libertarian Sean Haugh. Fourteen percent were undecided. Asked about their choices without Haugh, Tillis again led Hagan by 1 point, 42 to 41, with 15 percent undecided.

Opinion: Hagan Lawyers Have Trouble With The Dictionary

RickHendersonby Rick Henderson

In recent weeks, Carolina Journal has followed up several times on a story first reported at the Washington, D.C., news service Politico, noting that JDC Manufacturing, a company co-owned by Democratic U.S. Sen. Kay Hagan’s husband Chip received some $390,000 in benefits from the 2009 federal stimulus law: a $250,644 grant to install more efficient lighting and furnaces and place solar panels at its building in Reidsville, and roughly $137,000 in federal tax credits resulting from the solar installation.

The Hagan team has responded — primarily through its attorneys and other paid operatives — by claiming initially that the family and later that JDC never profited from the federal handouts.

Opinion: Hunt-Helms and Helms-Gantt Will Remain Costliest N.C. Races

BarrySmithBy Barry Smith

The U.S. Senate race between Democratic incumbent Kay Hagan and her Republican challenger Thom Tillis looks like it’s about to become the most expensive statewide race in North Carolina history. Or will it?

While a Charlotte Observer analysis shows that total spending in the race, including that from independent groups, is expected to top out at around $103 million, that’s actually less in inflation-adjusted expenditures per registered voter than has been spent in the two most expensive U.S. Senate races in North Carolina.

Tillis Campaign Statement On Final Debate and Hagan’s Absence

ThomTillisRALEIGH – Following the final debate of the N.C. Senate campaign, which Sen. Kay Hagan skipped, Thom Tillis for U.S. Senate campaign manager Jordan Shaw issued the following statement:

“At tonight’s debate, Thom discussed his solutions for turning our economy around, keeping America safe and secure, and rejecting politics as usual in Washington. Thom also talked about his working-class values and how he knows firsthand what it’s like to raise a family while attending school at night and struggling to make ends meet. Thom is running to protect the American Dream for future generations and create opportunities for middle-class families.