John Hood: Economic Progress Isn’t Confined to Cities
RALEIGH — The Triangle and Charlotte regions are among the fastest-growing urban areas in the United States. But they are hardly the only North Carolina communities with expanding economies. Indeed, a new study from the state Department of Commerce shows that over the past decade and a half, 90 of our 100 counties have outperformed the national average.
Produced by the department’s Labor and Economic Analysis Division (LEAD), the County Economic Vitality Index blends four standard measures — headline unemployment rate, average private weekly wage, median household income, and share of residents 25 and older with at least a high-school diploma — into a single statistic benchmarked to the national average and tracked over time.
Consider the case of New Hanover County. Its 2024 score on the Economic Vitality Index (100.4) was almost exactly the national average (100). New Hanover outperformed the national average on unemployment (121.2) and educational attainment (104.9) while remaining lower than average on weekly wages (80.9) and median income (94.5).
It will surprise no one to observe that the five top-scoring counties last year were all in the aforementioned regions: Wake (117.1), Durham (115.8), Union (109.9), Mecklenburg (109.3), and Orange (106.3). But would you have guessed that the next two counties on the list, Currituck and Camden, lay in the far northeastern corner of the state?
More to the point, while North Carolina’s average wages and household incomes remain somewhat below the national average, the gap has been shrinking over time. Since 2010, only 10 counties — Cumberland, Watauga, Buncombe, Orange, Onslow, Hyde, Bertie, Wayne, Forsyth, and Camden — have posted Economic Vitality Index growth slower than the national average. (Yes, Camden and Orange can simultaneously look good in the 2024 snapshot and not-so-good over time.)
Across most of North Carolina, then, the recent economic story has been one of healthy improvement relative to the national average. For counties such as Iredell, Lincoln, Caldwell, Johnston, Clay, and Graham, the pace of improvement was rapid. For others, it was more tortoise than hare. Still, for North Carolina as a whole, the index rose from 90.2% of the national average in 2010 to 98.4% in 2024. That’s impressive.
For so broad-based a trend, it would be impossible to attribute the outcome to just one or two discrete causes. I think the tax and regulatory reforms enacted by the North Carolina General Assembly were a net positive. Perhaps you disagree, pointing instead to improvements in how we allocate infrastructure dollars and other funding for public services.
Nor do I mean to suggest that everything is hunk-dory in those 90 counties (or that everything is dismal in the 10 counties that failed to progress at the national rate from 2010 to 2024). Among the former group are quite a few counties that experienced population declines during the period in question, including the likes of Surry (-2.5%), Vance (-5.9%), Robeson (-11.2%), and Edgecombe (-13.4%).
As for the latter group, it can’t be a coincidence that they include the counties that are home to our largest military installations (Fort Bragg in Cumberland, Camp Lejeune in Onslow, and Seymour Johnston Air Force Base in Wayne). Perhaps their local markets for labor and land may be so distinctive that standard metrics don’t fully capture them. And Buncombe County’s precipitous drop in index score from 2023 to 2024 is clearly an effect of Hurricane Helene.
Still, because so many rural counties have, contrary to popular belief, kept pace with statewide gains on key indicators, I will draw one public-policy conclusion: it proved to be wise for state lawmakers not to impose excess burdens on energy generation, swine and poultry processing, lumber and wood products, and other business sectors with no shortage of vociferous critics.
Let’s keep that lesson in mind over the next few years as some of the same critics attempt to obstruct data centers, next-generation nuclear plants, exurban residential and commercial development, and other investments capable of powering another broad wave of economic vitality across our state.
John Hood is a John Locke Foundation board member. His books Mountain Folk, Forest Folk, and Water Folk combine epic fantasy with American history (FolkloreCycle.com).
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